Recurring projections using a predictive model

Contributions from recurring donors are growing by leaps and bounds. Right now there are $46M pledged over the next 18 months from over 203,000 donors, across all of ActBlue.

That’s a huge revenue source for campaigns, and it helps them with long-term budgeting. But we know that some donors won’t fulfill their full pledge, despite all of our best efforts to retain them. That’s why it’s crucial that campaigns and organizations are able to effectively predict how much money is going to be coming in month over month.

We’ve built a new predictive statistical model to run this projection for you automatically. Just go to your Dashboard, click on recurring, and then click on the tab that reads “Recurring Projections”.

You’ll see something that looks like this (this is the current ActBlue monthly projection chart):

And here’s the daily projection chart:

This pane shows both the aggregate and daily amount of revenue we expect you’ll bring in from currently active recurring contributions over the next two months. These expectations are based off a predictive model that takes into account the historical performance of recurring contributions. We provide both the exact estimate and a confidence interval between which you can reasonably expect your revenue to be. You can hover over the chart to find the exact estimate as well as the high and low estimates.

If your committee has received enough recurring contributions to make a statistically sound prediction, then the model used to calculate the expected value of your recurring contributions is unique to your committee. Otherwise, we use a model based on data we see all across ActBlue. In either case, this model is recalculated daily to ensure your data is accurate and up-to-date.

Here at ActBlue we’re committed to providing infrastructure that gives cutting-edge tools to groups large and small.

Not every campaign or organization has the resources to build a predictive model for their program or the data to power it. We’re able to leverage the power of site-wide data to build these models and make them available to every organization, so we can all make smarter, more informed decisions. That’s the power of ActBlue.

As always, if you have questions or want advice on building your recurring donor program, just drop us a line at info@actblue.com and someone will be in touch.