A big mobile boost from one simple test

We run optimization tests on our forms constantly, but it’s rare that we see winners as big as our recent mobile test.

At this point we’re running around 40% of all donations made on mobile devices. Anything we can do to keep that number going up, the better, given the massive transition in traffic from desktop to mobile.

In this test, when donors landed on a form, some were moved directly to the point on a form where they’d choose an amount to give — skipping past the contribution blurb they would normally read first, as you can see below. Others got the normal form with the headline and blurb up top.

form

 

The forms that skipped over the blurb won by a landslide. The result was a statistically significant increase of 5.2% conversions on the variation (p < 0.05). It was such a big winner that we automatically rolled it out sitewide.

Most of our tests see a tiny bump, but any increase in conversions makes a big difference when we’re running tens of millions of contributions through our forms each month. And a 5.2% bump? That’s real money.

There were more than 250k new mobile contributions made sitewide in July, with an average contribution size of about $30. That means our mobile form test resulted in about 400k extra dollars. Like I said, real money.

We previously tested a contribution form without a blurb on both desktop and mobile versions to our email list. The results were abysmal, which is why we ran this sitewide test to mobile donors specifically.

By nature, our mobile users are seeking ways to save them time and enhance their convenience when they’re making contributions. And that’s what this switch gives them.

Biggest quarter ever

Wow, this has been some beginning to 2016. We launched ActBlue Charities, passed the $1 BILLION mark, and had back-to-back biggest months ever.

At the end of last year, we were over the moon about handling 150k contributions in a single day on December 31, 2015. Well, we handled twice that on February 29, 2016 and surpassed 200k contributions two more times this quarter.

Check out this chart showing what our three biggest donor days looked like hour-by-hour (with the total contributions processed on those days in parentheses): March 30, 2016 (215,954), March 31, 2016 (275,763), and February 29, 2016 (299,174):

 

 

There are many things that go into massive days like this (and not just a lot of email).

For one, we typically run recurring contributions in a series of batches starting at 4AM. That pattern is evident on the two days in March, but our tech team actually scheduled out February 29th a bit differently because all recurring contributions originally made on the 29th, 30th, and 31st of any given month needed to be run in a single day. We processed over 80k recurring contributions that morning (new record, by far) by starting earlier and capping the contributions per hour, and we were ready to handle the end-of-month rush well before 9AM. Gotta love when a good plan comes together…

It’s abnormal to run three days of recurring contributions at once, and it’s the reason why February 29th goes down as our biggest day in terms of contributions, but the end-of-quarter deadline day is our biggest by dollar. The average for a one-time donation this cycle is $38.65 compared to an average of $21.03 for recurring contributions, since recurring contributions tend to have a smaller average than one-time gifts. But the really amazing number is the average value (so far!) of a single recurring sign-up this cycle: $72.88.

We saw March 31st bring in a ton of traffic at the end of the day, with two hours of more than 20k (!!) contributions after 9 PM. Volume stayed unbelievably high until the steep drop off at midnight. And yes, people really do respect it as a deadline and stop giving when the clock strikes twelve on the East Coast.

Topline Numbers

Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016
Contributions 467,163 897,884 782,820 5,571,391
Total Amount $16,904,456 $36,955,661 $26,905,248 $165,170,022
Avg. Contribution Size $36.19 $41.16 $34.37 $29.65
Unique Campaigns, Committees,
and Organizations
1,243 2,478 1,728 2,989

 

Almost 3,000 different campaigns, organizations, and committees raised a total of $165M this quarter, with the average contribution size under $30. For context, it took us more than four years to pass that dollar total and more than nine years to pass the 5.5M contribution mark — both of which we just accomplished in three months. Yeah, that’s nuts.

More and more people are supporting the non-profits, campaigns, and causes of their choice via the ActBlue family of organizations. Of the 1.8 million people who gave a contribution this quarter, 65% had made a donation on our site before.

Express

Those repeat donors are the lifeblood of so many campaigns and organizations. And that’s why our system is designed to reduce friction, making it painless to give again. ActBlue Express is at the heart of it, allowing donors to give with a single click, again and again. Of these repeat donors, almost 9 in 10 have saved their credit card information with ActBlue. Plus, nearly 3 out of every 4 donors who made a contribution for the first time in Q1 2016 signed up for Express accounts.

More people have created an ActBlue Express account already this cycle than in every other cycle combined.

 

 

And looking at just this past quarter, over 750k people signed up for an Express account — that’s more than twice the number who signed up in our previous biggest quarter (Q4 2015 had 302k new sign-ups). Altogether, we’re up to an incredible 2.9M Express users.

Almost three-quarters of all contributions on ActBlue at this point are made by Express users. That added up to over $110M from Express users last quarter.

Saved payment information is no longer the future; it’s the new normal here at ActBlue.

The chart below shows both the overall growth in the number of contributions, as well as how the number of Express contributions as compared to those made by non-Express users is increasing. For much of last cycle, there was not much difference between these types of users, but the ratio has become closer to 3:1 recently.

 

 

There are a lot of reasons why we’re seeing this big spike in Express donations. We’ve run a number of optimization tests with the goal of boosting Express sign-ups and the use of donors’ saved payment information. There haven’t been any breakout tests, but the slow and steady tweaks have added up over time.

At the same time there is a broader movement coming from the e-commerce industry to promote saved credit card information, with Visa checkout being the most visible example. More Americans are comfortable saving their financial information online, and we work hard to earn and keep their trust. ActBlue is Level 1 PCI compliant — the gold standard for security — and we undergo a rigorous audit every year to maintain it.

The larger trend toward mobile is having an impact as well, as Express users continue to outperform non-Express users on non-desktop devices. And features like Express Pass continue to help boost conversions.

Mobile

Making it possible for people to give with a single click means higher conversion rates. More and more people are making donations on mobile devices. It’s part of a wider traffic trend away from desktop and toward mobile. This quarter alone, over 41% of contributions were made on a mobile device. That’s double the mobile giving rate we saw at the same point last cycle (Q1 2014 had a mobile rate of just 20.5%).

 

 

And the mobile contribution rate jumps to 44% when looking just at Express users, who — as we’ve alluded to already — are our power users. We’re expecting to cross that 50% threshold very soon!

Recurring

Recurring contributions continue to be a great source of fundraising for campaigns, organizations, and nonprofits. This past quarter we processed $26.2M in recurring volume from over 1.4M contributions — both of which are new quarterly records. For context, we raised $26.9M TOTAL during Q1 2015. The chart below details the growth in the overall number of recurring contributions, broken down by whether or not the recurring contribution is new or subsequent.

 

 

How big was this quarter? Well, the number of new recurring sign-ups in the past quarter (347k) was more than all of the total recurring contributions made in Q1 2014 (new + subsequent).

One of the best parts of a recurring program is that it provides a steady stream of income for campaigns and organizations that allows them to plan out their fundraising goals from month to month with ease. If you’re not running a recurring program and you’re interested in starting one, drop us a line at info@actblue.com and we’re more than happy to help strategize.

It was a helluva start to 2016. We’re excited to see what the rest of the year brings. In the meantime, our tech team is hard at work on a number of infrastructure upgrades, optimization tests, and some cool new features (as always). So stay tuned. And may the email odds be ever in your favor.

Record-breaking quarter caps off ActBlue’s biggest off-year ever

Breaking records doesn’t ever get old around here. Then again we’re a bunch of digital fundraising nerds that get super excited about participation in democracy and our larger society.

And we did a ton of celebrating this quarter. Not only was December 31st our biggest donor day in history with 150k contributions, but we handled more volume over the last four days of the quarter than we’ve ever handled during a four-day period. Yep, even bigger than the lead up to the 2014 midterms. It was a virtual wave of grassroots money flooding into thousands of campaigns and organizations.

That doesn’t happen without tons of dedicated staffers working for candidates and organizations grinding it out over the holidays, working to reach more donors, and get more people participating earlier than ever in a crucial election cycle.

We broke plenty more records this quarter as well. Q4 saw the most Express users ever added in a quarter — 302k — which brought our total number of donors who have saved their credit card information past the 2 million mark.

I’ll admit that I didn’t think we’d reach that big milestone by the end of the year, but there was a tremendous surge at the end of December that put us over the top. We added the most Express users (31k) in a single day on December 31, 2015 — part of our unending quest to make it increasingly simple and easy for folks to give again in a single click.

During the last quarter of 2015 we handled 2.4M contributions — you guessed it, another record. Here’s a chart comparing Q4 2015 to past quarters, dating back to the 2012 election cycle:

Total contributions by quarter since 2011 on ActBlue

As you can see, the two previous cycles started out with slow growth, with the major growth happening in the last two or three quarters. That’s not happening this cycle. We’re seeing consistent increases quarter over quarter.

And yes, given this crazy growth pattern we’re busting our tails right now to make sure our underlying technology infrastructure continues to be rock solid. Not for nothing, while there were major enterprise-grade tech problems at the end of the year, ActBlue stayed up and processing contributions like it was any normal day.

It’s also worth pointing out that we’re past the $200M mark for the cycle. To put that in context, that’s $20M more than we handled in the entire 2012 election cycle, the last presidential cycle. And we’re nearly two-thirds of the way to 2014’s $320M benchmark (our biggest cycle).

So yeah, we’re well ahead of schedule to surpass half a billion dollars this cycle.

Off-year fundraising totals on ActBlue since the 2012 election cycle

On the above chart, you can also see a huge uptick leading up to 2015’s fourth end-of-quarter (EOQ). That spike is the $13M we handled from December 28, 2015 to December 31, 2015.

It’s proof that donors are in the giving mood (or at least still checking email!) at the end of the year — even if those donations aren’t tax deductible, like political contributions. Email is an evolving art, but it’s a good idea to keep this in the back of your head for planning out your send calendar for the end of the year.

But let’s focus on our biggest donor day ever — because December 31, 2015 was big and mobile-intensive. Here’s what the hour-by-hour looked like for contributions made on New Year’s Eve:

Mobile and desktop contributions made on December 31, 2015 by hour

A full 12,805 contributions came in between 9 to 10 PM (that’s the most newly made contributions in a single hour) with 57.7% (!!!!) of those being made via mobile devices. That’s by far the highest number of mobile contributions made in a single hour and it’s also the highest we’ve ever seen the mobile donation rate. Last EOQ we saw mobile rates spike above 50% for a few short minutes, but on December 31, 2015 there were three straight hours with more contributions coming in via a mobile device than a laptop or desktop.

It won’t be long now until >50% mobile is standard stuff, but right now this is new and exciting. And it’s also a reminder of how important it is for sites to load quickly during big traffic moments, especially when people should be enjoying a party and not fiddling with their phones.

And for those that are wondering how December 31, 2015 shaped up to the other three biggest donor days in our history, look no further than the following chart:

Contributions by hour on the biggest end-of-quarter days in ActBlue history

Just three months ago on September 30, 2015 we handled 147k contributions. The final tallies for September 30, 2014 and June 30, 2015 were 136k and 106k, respectively. What makes December 31, 2015 unique is the smaller bump at 4AM, which is when we process queued recurring contributions in a batch. We run this in the early morning to make sure our platform isn’t clogged up when the hourly volume picks up later in the day. For months that end in “30” we process recurring contributions made on both the 30th and 31st of a month, which is one reason why you see those huge upticks between 4 and 5AM for the other three biggest EOQs. There was just that much more organic traffic on December 31, 2015 to set the record for biggest donor day.

Below we break down this quarter compared to previous quarters.

TOPLINE NUMBERS

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
Contributions 208,812 1,265,339 743,110 2,177,164 2,401,748
Total Amount $13,076,152 $48,271,803 $28,642,254 $74,208,413 $72,361,085
Avg. Contribution Size $62.62 $38.15 $38.54 $34.08 $30.13
Campaigns and organizations 1,688 2,419 2,189 2,800 2,618

We’re out-pacing where we were last election cycle by more than three times the number of contributions and more than twice the total volume. More committees, campaigns, and organizations are fundraising at this point in the cycle than last cycle, too. And we’re actually not that far off from the number that were fundraising over the last few days before Election Day in 2014.

EXPRESS

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
New Express Users 14,049 114,799 69,600 99,821 302,993
Express User conversion rate 8.1% 17.3% 17.7% 15.6% 34.8%
Percent Express contributions 17.7% 53.4% 52.5% 64.5% 67.4%

Express users are our power users: Two out of three contributions made this quarter were from Express users (compared to a little more than one in two during the last off-year). Donors are also signing up at a fast clip: we added 816k new Express users this year, which is more than we signed up for Express throughout the entire 2014 election cycle.

The Express universe is huge, new, and active — donors consistently use their accounts to make contributions. It’s a big reason why we had such a monster Q4.

MOBILE

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
Percent mobile 2.3% 8.9% 19.% 25.3% 34.8%
Percent mobile for Express users 1.7% 11.6% 23.3% 27.0% 37.6%

We’ve already talked about the huge spikes we saw during the last day of the year, but more than one in three contributions made this quarter were made on a mobile device. That’s the highest rate in our history. And it’s even higher for Express users because they’ve already saved their credit cards with ActBlue, which means they can give with a single-click using Express Lane.

RECURRING

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
Recurring volume $769,101 $3,163,684 $1,835,802 $17,639,613 $17,242,658
Percent recurring volume 5.9% 6.6% 6.4% 23.8% 23.8%

Recurring volume continues to represent a significant portion of the quarter’s total dollar amount. Almost one in four dollars we handled were recurring. And in terms of total dollar amount, the recurring volume we saw in Q4 2015 was more than nine times(!) as much as in Q4 2013.

We couldn’t possibly talk about all of these insane numbers without mentioning our rockstar Customer Service team. They spent December 31st handling 2,791 email conversations and fielding 941 phone calls from donors across the country.

Over the course of the entire quarter, the team had 38,671 email conversations and answered 46,297 incoming phone calls from donors, making it possible for the campaigns and organizations using ActBlue to focus in on their fundraising programs and have a successful end to 2015. We work relentlessly to support donors in a timely manner, because it’s the right thing to do and because it makes them more likely to come back and give again.

All in all, this was a massive, record-breaking quarter, bigger than the last record-breaking quarter (noticing a pattern?). Stay tuned for more crazy totals and sky-high percentage increases.

But wait, one more! We’d be remiss if we didn’t point out that we just passed the $900M mark for the total raised in our eleven-year history!!! That big B (billion!) word is in sight! #roadto1B

In case you missed it, here’s a recap of our fantastic year: report.actblue.com. As always, we like email and would love to get one from you, email info@actblue.com and a real, live human will respond.

Keeping your settings consistent just got a whole lot easier

The days of having one contribution form for your organization or campaign are long over.

Organizations and candidates often have dozens of forms created and maintained by several different people. It can be difficult to make sure all of your settings stay consistent across your forms, especially when you have a rigorous testing program that’s frequently settling on new best practices. For example, it’s time consuming to go and change all your old forms one-by-one if testing indicates you should use different pop-up recurring language.

That’s why we’re excited to roll out a new feature that allows you to create a default form with your best practices and tag pages that you want to have those universal settings. When you update the settings in the default form, all the other forms update automatically.

Here’s how it works:

You’ll now see a column that says “Use defaults” in your newly renamed Form Management tab in the left menu of your Dashboard:

See that contribution form at the top in grey? That’s your campaign or organization’s default form. It’s new and we’ve created it for everyone. It’ll always appear at the top of the Form Management tab.

Open up the default form and select all of the settings you typically apply to every contribution form, things like your pop-up recurring ask threshold or your preset contribution amounts. It looks just like a regular form, but it only has one purpose: to establish the defaults for other forms.

Once you’ve done that, go and click the “Use defaults” box for every form that ought to have those settings. That’s it! All your forms have the same settings, no matter who created them.

Keep in mind that the default form will override all of the settings except for Page Name, Author, Contribution blurb, and url. That means if you leave something like the Thank you text blank on your default form, none of the forms with default settings will have Thank you text. So be careful with your selections.

Further, if you’ve selected default settings for a form the only fields you’ll be able to edit are Page Name, Author, Contribution blurb, and url. Every other setting will be hidden. You can still run an A/B test or set a goal, however. And if you decide you’d like to make edits outside the default settings, just uncheck the “Use defaults” box for that form and make any edits you wish. Just keep in mind that the form won’t update the next time you edit your default form.

You can always go back and edit the default form at any time.

This new feature should save folks that use it a bunch of time and lead to a more consistent fundraising program. But it’s a totally optional feature, so use it at your own discretion.

Our dev team has a few more new features they’re working on right now, so stay tuned! And in the meantime enjoy the new default forms.

Q3: The most donors in a day, ever.

As you read this, keep reminding yourself that we’re talking about the third quarter of an off-year. An off-year!

We broke the record for most contributions in a single day: 147k on September 30th. It was also our second biggest day ever in terms of money raised, a total of $5.5M. What’s #1 all time? Well, that was September 30, 2014, in the run-up to the mid-terms.

Here’s how we got there: We started off the morning strong with a peak of 400 contributions a minute (a new record) when we ran recurring contributions as a batch while everyone was sleeping. Later in the evening we were flying at 250 contributions per minute — all new, organic contributions (also a record).

In moments like these, infrastructure matters. Our engineers have been working for years to increase the volume we can handle per minute and everything ran as smooth as butter (or your favorite non-dairy substitute).

Meanwhile, people are no longer chained to their laptops — mobile giving was a powerful force this past quarter, especially in the evening hours, when people are more likely to be checking email on their phones. Between 9 and 10 PM on September 30, we saw mobile contributions spike to an unbelievable 50% at one point (another new record) and finish at an average of 44.3% for the hour.

The chart below details newly made contributions on September 30. You can see the incredible hourly volume we handled and the breakdown of mobile vs. desktop contributions:

That figure — 44.3% mobile contributions in an hour —is unheard of in this space. For a little context, just two years ago our mobile average was just 15.5% for the month. This leap was only possible because our tech team has focused on improving mobile conversion rates with notable features like Express Pass and Express Lane and on constant, small iterative changes to our contribution form that make it load faster.

There is no way that we would have broken so many records without thousands of hours of developer time going into mobile optimization and sheer processing infrastructure.

The chart below details the pace of the day compared to the other top EOQ days. We know fundraising picks up later in the day, so we process all of the scheduled recurring contributions early in the morning (note the massive number of contributions that start in the 4AM hour).

And it’s not all just west coasters giving in the last few hours. It’s folks checking their email on their phones before bed, reading an urgent appeal, and responding. And it’s a beautiful sight to see, for those of us who care about our democracy being for and by the people — not just those who can cut checks for thousands (or millions) of dollars.

But this quarter was about more than just the EOQ deadline. Here’s what we wrote to recap the first quarter of this cycle:

If current trends hold, ActBlue could process half a billion dollars in small-dollar contributions this cycle.

Well…it’s been nine months and we’re already well past the $130M mark. It’s fair to say we’re well on our way to hitting that target. And $56M of that money came in this quarter alone (scroll down to see how this quarter compares to previous years).

Campaigns, organizations, and committees are coming out in full force this year. So far this cycle, almost three thousand different campaigns and committees have raised money using ActBlue.

It’s all a sharp contrast to the massive checks the Republican super PACs have been cashing.

The bigger the pool of active, engaged donors, the stronger the party. That’s why we place such a strong value on our whopping 1.7 million Express users, who have saved their payment information with ActBlue. What’s important is not just the sheer size, but how recent and active these donors are. We’ve added more Express users (267k) this quarter than in any other. And we added an incredible 24k on EOQ day alone (new record)!

One reason why that’s the case: high Express conversion rates. This past month, 38% of donors eligible for an Express account signed up for one. Last cycle, we were averaging just over 20%. It’s an indication that more and more new donors are coming in and immediately thinking ahead to their next donations. That’s a huge strength for the party right now.

A bigger Express donor base is in the interest of Democratic organizations and campaigns of all sizes. As our Executive Director Erin Hill said in the Washington Post on Wednesday:

“Small[-dollar] donors are becoming the backbone of Democratic giving.” And the Republicans have nothing like it.

The chart below shows both the number of new Express sign-ups and the rate at which non-Express donors are signing up as Express users over the past 12 quarters.

Below we break down this quarter compared to previous quarters.

TOPLINE NUMBERS

2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3
Dollar Amount $42,997,505 $22,600,373 $80,391,630 $55,836,968
Contributions 973,909 637,924 2,304,190 1,791,040
Average Contribution Size $44.15 $35.43 $34.89 $31.18
Distinct Entities 2,681 1,827 3,064 2,263

MOBILE

2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3
% Mobile 7.0% 15.1% 27.2% 29.8%
% Mobile
for Express users
9.3% 18.7% 29.3% 32.4%

RECURRING

2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3
% Recurring Volume 7.2% 6.6% 13.7% 23.9%
Recurring Volume $3,107,154 $1,490,781 $11,021,894 $13,319,997

Some interesting nuggets from this data: We processed more than double the dollar amount we saw in our last off-year, Q3 of 2013. And there was an even bigger growth in the number of contributions from two years ago. We jumped up from 637,924 to a massive 1,643,083 contributions this quarter. That’s a 259% increase.

Recurring contributions remain the best way to sustain a campaign or organization in the long-term. And we’re continuing to see huge strides forward with recurring. On the morning of September 30th, we processed our biggest recurring haul ever: about $700k in recurring donations, from 37k contributions.

Look at the huge jump in the overall recurring numbers for the quarter. A full 23.9% of all the money that came in this quarter was from recurring contributions. That’s phenomenal!

This doesn’t all just happen. We’ve spent a lot of time extolling the virtues of a strong recurring program and helping campaigns and organizations increase their conversion rates. At the same time, Americans are starting to get more comfortable with giving monthly. Recurring is a huge percentage of the money raised by international NGOs. They’ll spend up to $175 on acquisition per person, because of the lifetime expected value of a recurring contribution.

Campaigns don’t value recurring contributions quite that highly yet, but it’s exciting to see the tide turning. It’ll lead to much more stability for campaigns and organizations. And they’ll be able to focus more on core work beyond fundraising. Plus, donors love being able to easily give on a regular basis to the candidates and organizations they care about.

To all the hardworking digital campaigners out there who made this quarter such a success, congrats! We’re proud to help you fuel your campaigns and organizations. Drop us a line any time if you want to talk strategy, or just have a question: info@actblue.com.

——

co-authored by: Kim Niedermaier

Custom Facebook and Twitter share content

Our tech team is on a roll. Now you can enter custom content for both Facebook and Twitter shares on your contribution forms.

If you’re in the edit tab on a form you’ll see a new section:

social share

Here’s what a Facebook share would look like:

facebook share

Custom text and images should help increase conversions, so we encourage you to spend the extra couple minutes filling this in when you’re creating a new form. But at the same time, don’t expect social donations to be a magic bullet.

The vast majority of contributions come in from email, with Facebook coming in far behind, followed by Twitter. Custom share content won’t change that, but it will help on the margins, especially when your campaign is in a rapid response situation.

Enjoy this new feature and don’t forget to go back and edit your default donation form you link to on your website. As always, just drop us an email at info@actblue.com if you have any questions.

Three quarters of a billion dollars

ActBlue has now processed $750 million in grassroots donations in 11 years, from over 16 million donations at an average of $46.47. It’s incredible.

We’re on an amazing tear. Look at this growth chart:

31% of our total amount raised has come in the past year alone. And here’s why:

ActBlue is now the fundraising software of choice for nearly all Senate and House Democratic candidates, along with the DCCC, DSCC and the DLCC. And an increasing number of c4 non-profits use us. But one of the biggest factors for our meteoric growth? Organizations and campaigns are simply raising more grassroots donations.

And we can take a little credit for that. With 1.4 million Express users and counting, constant optimization testing, and ridiculously good uptime and load times, we’ve been working hard to ensure our clients raise as much grassroots money as possible.

Together, we’ve built a powerful force in fundraising that has propelled thousands of Democrats and advocacy groups to victory.

Who wants to take bets on when we hit ONE BILLION DOLLARS? And yes, quite a few Dr. Evil impressions have been heard around the office this week, given that we’re in a presidential cycle and the trajectory of our growth it won’t be long!

Recurring projections using a predictive model

Contributions from recurring donors are growing by leaps and bounds. Right now there are $46M pledged over the next 18 months from over 203,000 donors, across all of ActBlue.

That’s a huge revenue source for campaigns, and it helps them with long-term budgeting. But we know that some donors won’t fulfill their full pledge, despite all of our best efforts to retain them. That’s why it’s crucial that campaigns and organizations are able to effectively predict how much money is going to be coming in month over month.

We’ve built a new predictive statistical model to run this projection for you automatically. Just go to your Dashboard, click on recurring, and then click on the tab that reads “Recurring Projections”.

You’ll see something that looks like this (this is the current ActBlue monthly projection chart):

And here’s the daily projection chart:

This pane shows both the aggregate and daily amount of revenue we expect you’ll bring in from currently active recurring contributions over the next two months. These expectations are based off a predictive model that takes into account the historical performance of recurring contributions. We provide both the exact estimate and a confidence interval between which you can reasonably expect your revenue to be. You can hover over the chart to find the exact estimate as well as the high and low estimates.

If your committee has received enough recurring contributions to make a statistically sound prediction, then the model used to calculate the expected value of your recurring contributions is unique to your committee. Otherwise, we use a model based on data we see all across ActBlue. In either case, this model is recalculated daily to ensure your data is accurate and up-to-date.

Here at ActBlue we’re committed to providing infrastructure that gives cutting-edge tools to groups large and small.

Not every campaign or organization has the resources to build a predictive model for their program or the data to power it. We’re able to leverage the power of site-wide data to build these models and make them available to every organization, so we can all make smarter, more informed decisions. That’s the power of ActBlue.

As always, if you have questions or want advice on building your recurring donor program, just drop us a line at info@actblue.com and someone will be in touch.

Conversion rates by refcode

Our developers have been on a 2015 quest to give users greater access to data and visualizations to help you optimize your fundraising program.

We just rolled out a new feature on page dashboards: conversion rates per reference code (refcodes, for short). The two new columns on the refcode table display the number of people who landed on your form and the percentage of those that actually made a contribution.

Previously, you had to use your email mailer to check how many folks clicked each link to your contribution form and then look on your dashboard to see the number of contributions that were made. This will save you a step.

Just go to any form statistics page and you’ll see it (sample image from our testing):

FYI, we added new tracking functionality to make this work, so there isn’t historic data — only data from yesterday on will show up.

However, this will come in handy when sending emails, particularly if you are testing different versions of an email that are all linking to the same contribution form.

And, in addition to comparing conversion rates among different refcodes on the form, it should be useful to see how conversion rates differ from form to form. Know your organization-wide conversion rate, and pay attention if any form slips below that. Low conversion rates might ensue if there is a disconnect between the email content and what’s included on the form or if there is too much or too little text on the form.

It’s another tool in your toolbox that should help save you time and make better decisions. Speaking of new useful things, don’t miss the Recurring Retention charts that we just rolled out.

Questions? Just drop them in the comments or shoot us an email at info AT actblue DOT com.

Victory at the FEC: Draft Fund Fun

Last month the FEC ruled 6-0 to approve our request to open up restrictions on draft funds for federal candidates. Yes, it’s incredibly nerdy, but it’s a big deal.

Here’s Politico on the ruling (behind paywall):

Democratic digital fundraiser ActBlue won a unanimous green light from the Federal Election Commission today allowing the firm to start raising money for the Democratic 2016 presidential nominee — only if that person is a woman.

Hillary Clinton or any other female Democrat who secures the top spot on the 2016 ticket would benefit from ActBlue’s efforts. The company had previously secured FEC approval to establish “draft” campaigns before a formal candidate had declared their intention of running for an office. With its latest request, ActBlue got specific permission to establish a fund for which gender was the primary reason for someone to donate cash.

Yep, ActBlue can now set up a nominee fund and raise a pot of money that goes to the nominee if she is a woman. She’d get it when she officially became the nominee.

Additionally, you can now set deadlines for candidates to declare. If they haven’t announced their candidacy by then, the money goes elsewhere. It’s a way of building urgency around draft campaigns and getting your issues injected into the debate.

And wait, there’s more! The FEC gave us a thumbs-up to create draft funds that name a series of potential candidates as recipients.You can combine the two and do something totally whacky like:

  • If Beck declares by February 20th he gets the money
  • But if he doesn’t and Beyonce gets in by March 14th she gets it
  • But if she doesn’t and Kanye decides to run by April 27th then he gets it
  • But if none of the potential recipients declare in time, then the DNC receives the funds.

The primary reason we asked the FEC to rule on these requests is so that millions of small-dollar donors can encourage candidates — especially women — to run for federal office, in particular the presidency. And that’s something the FEC commissioners are interested in themselves.

ActBlue is always innovating to find new ways to give small donors a voice and help the organizations that use us advance their agendas and meet their goals. This new freedom from the FEC will help us do just that.