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Congressional gridlock, persistent unemployment, President Obama’s re-election chances–none of these will be a problem for Democrats after this Saturday. According to Christian radio host Harold Camping, May 21st, 2011 is the date the Rapture will occur:

I know it’s absolutely true, because the Bible is always absolutely true.

You can check his math here, though if it’s been a while since you took Algebra I and you’re not sure what (atonement x completeness x Heaven)^2 is, you may need to crack the textbook. Also note that Mr. Camping’s track record isn’t spotless; the original Rapture date was September 1994, but a mathematical error skewed his calculations.

However, as a political organization, we like to focus on the political ramifications of God’s elect being called to his side.

Congress

The gridlock that has stymied the Democratic agenda will clear up, as congressional delegations lose their most moralistic members and those Representatives that remain are, presumably, too embarrassed to engage in high profile obstruction. Relatedly, Republicans will no longer need to pander to hardline social conservatives and will compromise with Democrats to address the unending destruction unleashed upon humankind.

Labor

Unemployment will fall as the elect leave the workforce, opening up more positions and reducing competition for those positions. The improving economy will bolster the chances of Democrats up and down the ballot in 2012, and should assure President Obama–or, should he be called, his designated successor–of a smooth path to re-election.

Catastrophe

That’s not to say there’s no bad news for Democrats. The sun will go dark, putting a dagger through the heart of solar power initiatives, and the people of Judea will flee to the mountains, further complicating the peace process that President Obama recently put at the center of his foreign policy. There will be additional wars, famines and earthquakes, as well as a series of devastating meteorite impacts across the world.

That said, financial armageddon should be somewhat easier to avert in a post-Rapture House of Representatives, which would be more amenable to a clean debt ceiling vote, and it seems unlikely that Wall Street will be significantly impacted by Saturday’s events. In fact, rising commodity prices should offset the recent crash in that market, and there will be significant new opportunities for currency arbitrage due to volatile exchange rates.

Finally, depending on your interpretation of 1 Thessalonians 4:16, “the dead in Christ will rise first,” you may want to familiarize yourself with the CDC’s recent Emergency Preparedness and Response guidelines.

Before we begin, a housekeeping note: I’m going to expand our analysis a bit. While year-over-year growth is important to us as an organization, for observers of politics the more interesting comparison is where we were at the same point in a similar cycle. To provide both views I’m going to compare 2011 to both 2009 and 2007, when we were at the same point in the cycle.

Number of contributions 10,120
Total raised $636,711.13
Average Contribution size $62.92
Committees receiving money 460
Fundraising pages receiving money 447
Pages created 226

 

January 2011 is an interesting case. January is generally a down month for political organizations, a time to take stock and develop a plan for the next year. For ActBlue, January 2011 is the first “true” January we’ve had since 2007. In 2008, the Democratic presidential primaries were in full swing. In 2009, there was a flurry of activity around the inauguration of Barack Obama, and finally in 2010 the special election for the MA-Sen seat. In the following table, change is calculated relative to 2009 numbers.

Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 Change
Contributions 5,934 8,615 10,120 17%
Volume ($) $589,511.09 $1,281,487.37 $636,711.13 -50%
Mean Donation $99.34 $148.75 $62.92 -57%
Committees 86 366 460 25%
Pages Created 85 247 226 -8%
Pages w/ Money 80 278 447 60%

 

And here are the top committees, by number of donors, for January 2011. Since January was a slow month, we’re going to cut to the top four:

Name Race Donors Dollars
PCCC Organization 2,580 $33,082
Blue America PAC Organization 1,074 $12,558
Daily Kos Organization 950 $11,219
Anthony Weiner NY-09 567 $12,916

 

Our first January without a seismic political event shows a number of organizations fundraising for battles down the road. As our February post will show, one of those battles cropped up far sooner than anticipated–ActBlue played a key role in enabling grassroots participation in Wisconsin.

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